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Ahead of the 95th Academy Awards on March 12, Associated Press Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony with some sure things and some major question marks.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front”; “Avatar: The Way of Water”; “The Banshees of Inisherin”; “Elvis”; “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; “The Fabelmans”; “Tár”; “Top Gun: Maverick”; “Triangle of Sadness”; “Women Talking.”

This combination of photos shows promotional art for Oscar nominees for best feature, top row from left, “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” bottom row from left, “The Fabelmans,” “Tár,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Triangle of Sadness,” and “Women Talking.” (Netflix/Disney/Searchlight/Warner Bros./A24/Universal/Focus/Paramount/Neon/Orion-United Artists via AP)
COYLE: I can’t help feeling like this best picture field reflects our strange, jumbled movie world. Big-budget blockbusters, indie hits, acclaimed arthouse contenders mostly watched on video on demand, a German Netflix film and whatever it is, exactly, that you call “Elvis.” Little in this race has gone as expected. Many of the once-presumed favorites — “Bardo,” “Empire of Light,” “White Noise” — fizzled. Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” had the air of a sure-thing, but audiences didn’t show up — a strike against any contender but a fatal blow for a Spielberg movie. Academy members, seemingly, have developed less of a taste for Oscar bait and instead thrown their support behind a movie that never had any designs on the Academy Awards: “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” In an odd, mixed-up year, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s blissfully chaotic film has turned into an improbable Oscar runaway, cleaning up at all the predictive guild awards. This year, the road to best picture is paved with googly eyes.
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BAHR: I usually wish for chaos when a best picture winner is locked – but “Everything Everywhere” is about as chaotic (and inspired) a best picture winner as you can get. This would also make two years in a row that best picture went to films that premiered outside of the Cannes/Fall Festival stranglehold (“EEAAO” debuted at SXSW, “CODA” at Sundance). If anything is going to shake up the industry and the awards industrial complex, it’s something like this (and Andrea Riseborough).
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Ana de Armas, “Blonde”; Cate Blanchett, “Tár”; Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie”; Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”; Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

This combination of images shows Oscar nominees for best actress, from left, Cate Blanchett in “Tár,” Ana de Armas in “Blonde,” Andrea Riseborough in “To Leslie,” Michelle Williams in “The Fabelmans,” and Michelle Yeoh in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” (Focus Features/Netflix/Momentum Pictures/Universal/A24 via AP)
BAHR: So, it’s down to Lydia Tár and Evelyn Wang. This has been a race between Blanchett and Yeoh for most of the season. Both were commanding and dynamic in their roles — Blanchett as the genius conductor whose high-flying status in the classical music world begins to unravel around her and Yeoh as the Chinese American laundromat owner who has to save the multiverse, inhabiting different possible versions of herself from movie star to rock along the way. And both have been well decorated and celebrated this season. That their full character names are fully part of the cultural consciousness already speaks volumes. After the Screen Actors Guild Awards, it seems Yeoh is the likely victor, which will be a historic win with wide-ranging significance.
COYLE: This is indeed between Yeoh and Blanchett. And as much as I thought of Blanchett’s performance and as much as I’m kinda scared of what Lydia Tár might do to me for saying this, this is Yeoh’s year. For both her cosmic but grounded performance and for her butt-kicking career, Yeoh is more than deserved and will triumph.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”; Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Austin Butler, “Elvis”; Bill Nighy, “Living”; Paul Mescal, “Aftersun.”

This combination of photos shows Oscar nominees for best performance by an actor in a leading role, from left, Austin Butler in “Elvis,” Colin Farrell in “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Brendan Fraser in “The Whale,” Paul Mescal in “Aftersun,” and Bill Nighy in “Living.” (Warner Bros/Searchlight/A24/A24/Sony Pictures Classics via AP)
COYLE: The only thing I feel sure of in this category is that I’ve started to feel a little bad for Austin Butler. All the he’s-still-talking-like-Elvis jokes were fun at first, but now I’m worried an appealing young actor is going to get permanently typecast. Butler could very well win, though. And Farrell might even be able to pull off an upset with the much-loved “The Banshees of Inisherin.” But I’m leaning toward Fraser here, after his SAG win. He has two powerful Oscar narratives going for him : a comeback story and a massive physical transformation. Wait, didn’t I say Oscar bait was out this year? Oh, well. I’m still glad to see Mescal in this mix for the staggering “Aftersun.”
BAHR: Austin Butler will be just fine (I still think of him as Tex anyway) and who knows what voice he’ll break out for “Dune 2.” After SAG, it seemed clearer that this year the industry is looking to honor the journeymen over the relative newcomers. And you’re right, Fraser fits the narrative — a perfect comeback story hobbled only by the divisiveness of the movie itself (another reason why it could still be Farrell’s). Then again, Nighy could also be this year’s Anthony Hopkins.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”; Hong Chau, “The Whale”; Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

This combination of images shows Oscar nominees for best supporting actress, from left, Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Hong Chau in “The Whale,” Kerry Condon in “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Jamie Lee Curtis in “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and Stephanie Hsu in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” (Disney/A24/Searchlight/A24/A24 via AP)
BAHR: Angela Bassett seemed set to “do the thing,” with Kerry Condon in the wings as a possible sub, and probably still will. But then Jamie Lee Curtis had to go and make things more interesting when she won at the Screen Actors Guild (and gave a great speech).
COYLE: This had been Bassett’s all the way before Curtis, Nepo baby supreme, had her magnificent moment at the SAGs. But I’m going to stick with Bassett. It could be that academy members just can’t bring themselves to vote for a Marvel movie role. But Bassett gave such a powerhouse performance in “Wakanda Forever” and is overdue for her Oscar moment.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway”; Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”; Brendan Gleeson, “Banshees of Inisherin”; Barry Keoghan, “Banshees of Inisherin”; Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

This combination of photos shows Oscar nominees for the best supporting actor category, from left. Brendan Gleeson in “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Brian Tyree Henry in “Causeway,” Judd Hirsch in “The Fabelmans,” Barry Keoghan in “The Banshees of Inisherin,” and Ke Huy Quan in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” (Searchlight/Apple/Universal/Searchlight/A24 via AP)
COYLE: Finally, an acting lock. Quan is assured of taking this, and it should be one of the most stirring moments of the ceremony. It’s been literally decades since the former child actor of “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” and “Goonies” had a notable role in a movie. The film industry should probably be asking itself some hard questions about how that could happen for an actor as endearing as Quan. But as far as absolution goes, you could do a lot worse than hand Quan an Academy Award.
BAHR: The big question is what Hollywood will do with Quan after the win. The industry has a way of patting itself on the back for feel-good moments like this and Troy Kotsur’s last year and then moving on. Let’s hope Quan’s inbox is already flooded with scripts and offers.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: “Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”; Todd Field, “Tár”; Ruben Östlund, “Triangle of Sadness.”
BAHR: Awards history would suggest that The Daniels, Kwan and Scheinert, have this one locked after the Directors Guild win. At this point they’re the safe bet. But that’s not to deny the fact that their win would also be an exciting choice for the industry to celebrate the two 35-year-olds’ second film with their branch’s highest honor. It would be a win for original storytelling, diverse voices and just a case for just taking big, weird swings. Still, there’s a voice in my head saying that Spielberg, who has somehow only won best director twice, could be a wild card.
COYLE: This had once seemed a certainty for Spielberg who, after one of the most celebrated careers in movie history, finally phoned home with “The Fabelmans.” And unlike some previous years, he’s worked the campaign trail, too. But I think the Daniels — each of whom are less than half the age of Spielberg — have emerged as the likely winners. They would be only the third directing duo to win, following Jerome Robbins and Robert Wise for “West Side Story” and Joel and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men.”
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees: “All That Breathes’; “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”; “Fire of Love”; “A House Made of Splinters”; “Navalny.”
COYLE: I’m still smarting a little that Margaret Brown’s “Descendant,” a living oral history of a documentary, didn’t make it into this field. But it’s a strong group, including the tenderly lyrical “All That Breathes” and the smoldering romance of “Fire of Love.” But I think the most likely to win films are Daniel Roher’s “Navalny,” about the imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, and Laura Poitras’ “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” about the groundbreaking photographer Nan Goldin and her crusade against the the Sackler pharma family. I give the slight edge to “Navalny,” a film with obvious political poignance.
BAHR: Finally, some minor disagreement! I’m placing my bet on the Poitras. It won the Golden Lion over “Tár” and “The Banshees of Inisherin” at the Venice Film Festival, where the academy had a major presence. Poitras’ film, both intimate and epic in weaving together Goldin’s life, art and activism, is on another level. And she’s won before.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany); “Argentina, 1985” (Argentina); “Close” (Belgium); “EO” (Poland); “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland).”
BAHR: There’s not a bad choice in the lot (and so many great ones that didn’t make the cut…looking at you “Saint Omer” ), but while there’s a lot of late-game love for Ireland’s small, heart-wrenching “The Quiet Girl,” Germany’s visceral war epic “All Quiet on the Western Front” has probably had this category in the bag for some time. Edward Berger’s film, the first ever German-language adaptation of Erich Maria Remarque’s novel, hit a nerve and transcended the international category.
COYLE: “All Quiet on the Western Front” is a lock. With a commanding nine nominations, it’s maybe even a dark horse for best picture. But the international film award will be a bit anticlimactic. Some of the best movies of the year — Park Chan-wook’s “Decision to Leave,” Alice Diop’s “Saint Omer” and, above all, ” No Bears” by the recently imprisoned Iranian director Jafar Panahi — ought to have been in this bunch.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”; “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”; “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”; “The Sea Beast”; “Turning Red.”

This combination of images shows promotional art for Oscar nominees for best animated feature film, from left, “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,” “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On,” “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” “The Sea Beast,” and “Turning Red.” (Netflix/A24/Universal/Netflix/Walt Disney via AP)
COYLE: This is one of the easiest categories to call. “Guillermo del Toro’s “Pinocchio” — not, repeat not Robert Zemeckis’ “Pinocchio” — will take this easily. For me, the film’s fascist allegory was far too forced. But it’s a beautifully textured creation, and affection for del Toro among academy voters couldn’t run deeper. A shame, though, for Marcel. But as the mollusk would say, “You miss a hundred percent of the shots you don’t take.”
BAHR: It’s del Toro’s for sure. And it’s ok: However cliche, it really seems like the Marcel team is having a great time just being nominated.
How (and where) you can watch Oscar-nominated films online
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”

11 nominations. Digital rental.
The A24-produced indie “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has been a critical success and crowd-pleaser since it came out last spring. The film is nominated for best picture and Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis received nods for their performances. Yeoh, Quan and Hsu carry a mind-bending multiverse story about a Chinese American family’s disconnection and how they find each other again through the existence of other versions of themselves.
The film is available for streaming on Paramount+ with a Showtime add-on.
“The Banshees Of Inisherin”

Nine nominations. HBO Max.
Securing a best picture nomination and nods for Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson and Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin” tells a tale of the ebbs and flows of the friendship between Farrell’s Pádraic and Gleeson’s Colm while highlighting haunting Irish landscapes.
It can be streamed on HBO Max and rented on YouTube and Amazon.
“All Quiet On The Western Front”

Nine nominations. Netflix.
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” an unflinching German-language adaptation of a classic antiwar novel about life and death in the World War I trenches, is nominated for best picture and a slew of other Oscars.
The film is available to stream on Netflix.
“Elvis”

Eight nominations. HBO Max.
In “Elvis,” Baz Luhrmann’s vision transforms the relatively unknown former child actor Austin Butler into the King. The unconventional biopic tells the life of Elvis Presley from the perspective of his former manager, Colonel Tom Parker, played by Tom Hanks. Butler snagged a best actor nomination and the film received a nod for best picture and director.
The film is available to stream on HBO Max.
“The Fabelmans”

Eight nominations. Digital rental.
Steven Spielberg’s most personal film yet documents the joys and ultimate perils that fragment the Fabelman family forever. In a love letter to film and his family, Spielberg allows viewers to see behind his passion for film and his search for the meaning of family and life. Spielberg is nominated for best director and his film is nominated for best picture, while Michelle Williams up for best actress.
The film is available to purchase on Amazon.
“Tár”

Seven nominations. Digital rental.
Cate Blanchett plays a renowned conductor, Lydia Tár. As the titular character, she is cunning, talented and on too high of a pedestal to fall — but she does. “Tár,” which is nominated for best picture and best actress, deals with the dichotomy between power and art and takes on the culture wars dominating politics and popular discourse.
It is available for rent and purchase on Amazon and iTunes and will stream exclusively on Peacock beginning Jan. 27.
“Top Gun: Maverick”

Six nominations. Digital rental.
Thirty-six years after the original “Top Gun,” “Top Gun: Maverick” is nominated for best picture. Tom Cruise reprises his role as “Maverick,” taking on a leadership and mentor role for supporting cast members Miles Teller and Glen Powell.
“Top Gun: Maverick” is available for rental on Paramount+ and Amazon.
“Avatar: The Way Of Water”

Four nominations. Still in theaters.
After a 13-year wait, “Avatar: The Way of Water” delves into the journey of original “Avatar” main character Jake Sully’s family through adversity and loss. Director James Cameron builds a spiritual and visually compelling world in this sequel that stars Sam Worthington and Zoe Saldaña.
Nominated for best picture, the film is still in theaters and is not yet available for streaming.
“Triangle Of Sadness”

Four nominations Digital rental.
Swedish filmmaker Ruben Östlund has created a prickly social satire examining race, wealth, social class and inequality and secured a best director nomination in the process. It stars the late Charlbi Dean and Harris Dickinson as a model/influencer couple who end up on a sponsored yacht trip with other wealthy guests. Chaos ensues when the yacht gets stuck in the middle of a storm and the guests end up on a deserted island. The film later focuses on maid-turned-ringleader Abigail, played by Dolly De Leon.
The film is nominated for best picture and it is available to rent on YouTube, Apple TV and Amazon.
“The Whale”

Three nominations. Still in theaters.
Brendan Fraser receives a best actor nod for his portrayal of Charlie, the 600-pound central character of “The Whale.” Charlie is a father, an English teacher and has terminal health issues that give him a life expectancy of a week. In that week, he attempts to bond with his estranged daughter. The film is based on and adapted from the off-Broadway play by Samuel D. Hunter and also earned a best supporting actress nod for Hong Chau.
The film is still in theaters and is not yet available for streaming.
“Babylon”

Three nominations. Still in theaters.
From “La La Land” director Damien Chazelle comes a journey into 1920s Hollywood hedonism and a drug-fueled fever dream of the bygone cinematic era. The film stars Margot Robbie, Brad Pitt and newcomer Diego Calva in a three-hour story about filmmaking at a crucial time for American cinema.
Earning only three below-the-line nominations, the film is still in theaters and is not yet available for streaming.
“Women Talking”

Two nominations. Still only in limited theaters.
Director Sarah Polley weaves the story of pervasive sexual assault plaguing the women in a Mennonite community. “Women Talking” is an adaptation of a 2018 book by Miriam Toews. It stars Claire Foy, Rooney Mara and Frances McDormand.
The best picture nominee is still in limited theaters and is not yet available for streaming.
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Best supporting actress nominee. Still in theaters.
Angela Bassett has been nominated for best supporting actress in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” a superhero movie made in the wake of the death of Chadwick Boseman. She becomes the first actor nominated for a Marvel role. Director Ryan Coogler’s film allows the audience to grieve the character T’Challa and Boseman.
The film is still in theaters but is coming to Disney+ on Feb. 1.
“Causeway”

Best supporting actor nominee. Apple TV+.
Brian Tyree Henry snags a best supporting actor nod in “Causeway,” an Apple TV+ drama starring Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence. The film homes in on the relationship between a military engineer (Lawrence) recovering from the effects of a severe brain injury and an auto repair shop mechanic (Henry) living with the guilt and the physical aftereffects of a car accident.
The film is available to stream on Apple TV+.
“Blonde”

Best actress nominee. Netflix.
Ana de Armas receives her first nod for best actress for her portrayal of Marilyn Monroe in the adaption of Joyce Carol Oates’ novel, “Blonde.” The film is not quite a biopic of the late movie star’s life; it is more of a bruising narrative told from the perspective of director Andrew Dominik.
The film is available to stream on Netflix.
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Best adapted screenplay nominee. Netflix.
The sequel to director Rian Johnson’s “Knives Out,” “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” features the return of Daniel Craig’s southern twang-heavy detective Benoit Blanc. The twisty whodunit does what the original did best: allow problematic and murderous rich people to measure their egos and decipher which one is a killer.
The film is available to stream on Netflix.
“Aftersun”

Best actor nominee. Digital rental.
Writer-director Charlotte Wells illustrates the bond between a father/daughter duo portrayed by first-time Oscar nominee Paul Mescal and Frankie Corio. “Aftersun” touches on the pivotal moments in an adolescent life when the world feels so big but childlike wonder starts to fade when the reality of life peeks through the cracks. “Aftersun” is a dreamy, heartwrenching debut from Wells.
The film is available for rent on Amazon and YouTube.
“Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio”

Best animated film nominee. Netflix.
The decades-old child’s tale “Pinocchio” gets retold through the lens of Guillermo Del Toro’s dark mind. This is not the Disney version of “Pinocchio” — in Del Toro’s still musical version, themes of fascism are explored. The cast includes Christoph Waltz, Cate Blanchett, Tilda Swinton and Ewan McGregor and it is nominated for best animated film.
The film is available to stream on Netflix.
“EO”

Best international feature nominee. Still in limited theaters.
“EO” is the story of a circus donkey who is taken from his owner and begins a long, spiritual journey through the modern Polish and Italian countrysides, encountering humans both kind and cruel. It is a love letter to animals, directed by Jerzy Skolimowski.
“EO” is still in limited theaters and is not yet available for streaming.
“Argentina, 1985”

Best international feature nominee. Amazon Prime Video.
“Argentina, 1985” establishes the 1985 Trial of the Juntas, a historic moment for Argentina that helped launch the country’s democratic future after seven years of military dictatorship. Director Santiago Mitre shaped the classic political thriller into a story about preserving history and the years it takes to receive justice.
The film is available to stream on Amazon.
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”

Best documentary feature nominee. Still only in limited theaters.
American photographer Nan Goldin’s life’s work is told throughout “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” and it’s not just about photography. Directed by Laura Poitras, this documentary dives into Goldin’s political activism and how the sticky web of the Sackler family’s philanthropic interests in the art world intersected with their pharmaceutical company Purdue Pharma, which has faced a barrage of lawsuits alleging that it helped spark an opioid addiction and overdose crisis. The film is nominated for best documentary feature.
It is still in limited theaters and is not yet available for streaming.
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”

Best animated film nominee. Digital rental.
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” is a feature-length, stop-motion animation film based on the YouTube shorts made by Jenny Slate, who voices Marcel in a high-pitched octave, and director Dean Fleischer Camp. The experience of being small, cute and unassuming is the heart of the film about a mollusk.
The film is available to rent on Amazon.
“Turning Red”

Best animated film nominee. Disney+.
“Turning Red” is the first Pixar movie directed solely by a woman. Helmed by Domee Shi, who also made the Oscar-winning short “Bao,” the animated film is a coming-of-age tale about a Chinese Canadian eighth-grader who turns into a big, fluffy red panda — a walking metaphor for growing young womanhood. The film is nominated for best animated film.
“Turning Red” is available to stream on Disney+.
“RRR”

Best original song. Netflix.
S.S. Rajamouli’s three-hour maximalist action epic “RRR” is one of India’s most expensive — and top-grossing — films of all time. It pairs two of Tollywood’s biggest stars, N.T. Rama Rao Jr. and Ram Charan, as revolutionaries fighting against the British colonialists in 1920.
The film, nominated for best song, topped Netflix’s streaming charts over the summer and is still available to watch there.
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