The ongoing Pac-12 media rights saga has been garnering a lot of attention as speculation surrounding the future of the conference swirls.
That speculation now includes a prediction for its resolution.
The San Jose Mercury News’ Jon Wilner predicted the outcome of the media deal for the Pac-12 in a recent column.
“We project the Pac-12’s valuation to fall within 10 percent of the Big 12’s agreement with ESPN and Fox, which will pay each school an average of $31.7 million annually starting in 2024-25,” Wilner wrote. That places the Pac-12’s range as $28.5 million (per school) annually on the low end and $34.9 million annually on the high end. Our target number is $29.7 million.”
As for who the media partners will be, Wilner offered this prediction (or “educated guess”) as part of his Pac-12 Hotline column: “Piecing together the crumbs, we believe ESPN, Apple and Amazon are keenly interested in the content, with the possible existence of a fourth entity. An X factor, essentially. We also believe the Pac-12’s ability to fill the 7:30 p.m. Pacific window is a valuable asset. And not just on Saturday night. … As a result, the Hotline expects a media deal with ESPN and either Apple or Amazon, and we wouldn’t rule out the possibility for both companies to be involved.”
Wilner isn’t the only person to focus on the Pac-12’s media rights deal in the ongoing chatter surrounding college conference realignment and expansion.
More:Pac-12 expansion, realignment speculation: ‘Impending sense of doom’ over media deal
New York Post: Pac-12 faces challenges in media rights negotiations
Andrew Marchand said on a recent podcast (via 247 Sports): “So here’s where it is. If the Pac-12 is going to get as much as the Big 12, it’s going to have to piece things together, which might not even be possible. If they’re going to do a deal with ESPN (or) Amazon, they’d have to piece that together. And I’m even sure that’s possible. There’s nothing close at the moment, from what I understand. So, I think what we’re talking about then there are hundreds of millions of dollars apart. You know, Pac-12 really has to come way down if it wants to do an ESPN or Amazon deal. So the wild card out there is Apple, and I don’t know if that’s real or not. If it can be a real thing: Do you want to be on Apple? We’ll get to that we’ll get to Apple a little bit.”
More:Big 12 expansion, realignment speculation: Conference ‘prepared’ to add Pac-12 teams
Sports Business Journal: Pac-12 missed opportunity in media rights deal
John Ourand said on a recent podcast (via 247 Sports): “Here’s the problem that the Pac-12 faces is that there was a good deal to be had six months ago; back when you were talking about how far apart the two sides were. In the ensuing six months, all of the traditional television stations — CBS, who had been kicking the tires, is out. Fox which had been kicking the tires, did the Big 12 deal and Shanks told us that they’re pretty set with what they want in terms of college. NBC has its Big 10 in prime time, and there’s not a lot there. And ESPN is becoming a lot more cost-conscious. And so, as you said, the must-have programming, which the NBA falls in, the NFL falls in, certain big college conferences have fallen in. Right now, it doesn’t look like the Pac-12 is falling into that.”
More:Big Ten expansion, realignment speculation: Conference ‘coming back for more’ Pac-12 teams
Deseret News: Why Pac-12 Apple discussions leak is important
Dick Harmon wrote: “Most all believe the Pac-12 is in a poor spot to negotiate deals right now because the Big 12 jumped the league in renewing its TV deals. Also, a downturn in the economy, filled with layoffs and dwindling subscription numbers by streaming companies has added to the problem. Who leaked to the New York Post is a key to how this story is trending. Find that out, you find the motivation for why this talk of Apple TV+ landed with a huge thud, burning the Pac-12 memo of solidarity. It is fascinating.”
More:Pac-12 on ION Television? Conference slammed after potential TV media partner report
On3: Does Pac-12 choose money or exposure?
Eric Prisbell wrote: “But what the tech giants possess in dollars they lack in exposure – at least at this point. Yes, the landscape-shifting cord-cutting trend is continuing. Total pay TV subscriptions – cable and satellite – dropped by 6.3 percent in Q3 last year, showed data from research firm MoffettNathanson. More than 34 million homes exist entirely outside the cable network ecosystem; pay TV penetration is now roughly just 61 percent. And, yes, there are now more than 200 million Amazon Prime Video subscribers, including more than 150 million in the U.S. Apple TV+ has a much smaller market share (7 percent) and, as of last year, was estimated to have some 25 million paid subscribers.”
More:Pac-12 expansion, realignment: Arizona State AD addresses speculation amid media deal saga
Reach Jeremy Cluff at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.
Support local journalism: Subscribe to azcentral.com today.